You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 1–13, which are based on Reading Passage 1 below.
The Dutch Tulip Craze
Tulips are so familiar in gardens today that it is hard to imagine them as objects of frantic speculation. They are native to the mountain ranges of Central Asia and were cultivated for centuries in the Ottoman Empire, where the flower became an emblem of the court and appeared in textiles, ceramics and poetry. By the middle of the sixteenth century, bulbs had reached the gardens of European botanists, probably through diplomatic and trade contacts with Constantinople. The first important collections were formed in the Holy Roman Empire, but the flower's most spectacular cultural impact occurred in the Dutch Republic during the 1630s.
In the Netherlands, the founding figure was the botanist Carolus Clusius, who became director of the botanical garden at the University of Leiden in 1593 and planted tulip bulbs there. Clusius studied the plants carefully and distributed bulbs to friends and colleagues, and his garden became one of the sights of the city. Although he was mainly interested in their scientific value, the flowers soon attracted wealthy collectors who admired their delicacy and their endless variety. The plant, which grew slowly from seed and multiplied from bulbs, fitted well into a wider passion for rare natural objects.
What made certain tulips especially prized was a change in their appearance that nobody could explain: ordinary red or yellow flowers would suddenly produce offspring with white or yellow stripes on a darker background. These broken colours, as they were called, were actually caused by a virus that weakened the plant, but collectors valued them for their unpredictability and beauty. The most admired bulbs belonged to a limited number of named varieties, and their scarcity guaranteed that owners competed fiercely whenever one came on the market. A single bulb could pass through many hands during a season as its reputation grew.
The trade was shaped by the plant's growing cycle. Bulbs could be lifted in early summer and had to be replanted by autumn, so they were bought and sold mainly in the months between. In the 1630s much of the dealing involved paper contracts for bulbs that had not yet been dug up.
Buyers paid a fraction of the price, or sometimes nothing at all, and agreed to take delivery later. Many participants had no intention of ever planting the bulbs they purchased; they were simply betting on price changes. This practice, known in Dutch as windhandel, effectively allowed people to trade bulbs they never possessed and to profit before any actual flower changed hands.
At first the market was dominated by merchants and wealthy connoisseurs, but as prices rose sharply, people from a wider range of trades began to join in. Weavers, bakers, farmers and even clergymen bought bulbs in the hope of selling them quickly at a profit. Some borrowed money or sold possessions to enter the market. Contemporary accounts describe how, at the height of the frenzy in the winter of 1636–37, single bulbs of rare varieties were changing hands for several thousand guilders, at a time when a skilled craftsman might earn a few hundred guilders in a year.
The most famous examples come from contemporary documents rather than reliable financial records. The bulb known as Semper Augustus, which showed elegant red flares on a white ground, was said to have been offered for amounts that could have purchased a fine house in Amsterdam. A single bulb of another variety, the Viceroy, was reportedly exchanged for a list of goods that included animals, clothing and large quantities of food and drink. Some historians treat these stories with caution, since many survive only in satirical pamphlets written after the crash.
In early February 1637 the market collapsed with startling speed. At a routine bulb auction in the city of Haarlem, no buyers appeared. Within days, confidence vanished across the Dutch Republic, and many paper contracts became worthless. Buyers who had agreed to pay extravagant sums simply refused to do so, and sellers had no bulbs or cash to show for their transactions. The courts were reluctant to enforce such contracts, and most disputes were eventually settled privately, with buyers paying only a small percentage of the original price.
The wider economic damage was probably less severe than legend suggests. The Dutch economy remained broadly stable, and for many families the affair was a source of embarrassment rather than ruin. However, the episode entered the language and imagination of the nation, and it supplied moralists with an enduring image of the danger of speculation. Later generations often called it tulip mania, and historians still debate how far the evidence supports the most colourful versions of the story. The modern Dutch flower trade remains highly successful, though it operates on very different principles.
You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 14–26, which are based on Reading Passage 2 below.
Rewilding the Farm
In many parts of Europe, farmland that once produced crops is being left to itself. Low prices, heavy labour demands and poor soils have made some traditional cultivation uneconomic, and fields that were ploughed for generations now stand idle. At the same time, a movement known as rewilding has grown from a fringe idea into a serious topic in conservation. Its supporters argue that allowing natural processes to shape land can return wildlife to landscapes that have become simplified and silent. Increasingly, the debate is not about whether rewilding should happen in remote national parks, but about what role it might play on ordinary productive farms.
Rewilding on farmland does not usually mean abandoning all human influence and waiting for forest to cover every field. Instead, it involves restoring a greater degree of natural functioning while keeping the land open. Low densities of hardy cattle, horses or pigs are often introduced to graze in ways that resemble the actions of wild herbivores, creating patches of bare ground, open grassland and scrub. Watercourses may be allowed to meander again, and seed-eating plants are given space to return. The aim is a dynamic system in which habitat change is driven partly by animals, weather and vegetation rather than entirely by machinery and chemicals.
The ecological gains can appear rapidly. Beetles, grasshoppers and pollinating insects increase when pesticides are withdrawn and flowering plants return. Ground-nesting birds benefit from tussocky grass and patches of disturbed soil. In some projects, birds of prey have moved in because voles and other small mammals are more abundant. Ponds that have been restored support frogs, newts and dragonflies. None of this is automatic, and results depend on scale, soil type and the surrounding landscape, but the broad pattern is that complexity at ground level supports a much richer food web.
There are also benefits for water and atmosphere. Land with varied vegetation and healthy soil absorbs rainfall more effectively than tightly grazed pasture or bare arable fields. This slows the flow of water into streams and can reduce the severity of flooding lower in the catchment. Deep-rooted plants and accumulated leaf litter store carbon, while the return of wetlands can keep water in the landscape during dry months. Such services are seldom rewarded by food markets, which is one reason that public funding may be necessary if society wants land managers to supply them.
The most obvious obstacle is economic. If a farmer stops producing a crop or raising large numbers of livestock, that income disappears. Payments for conservation are often modest and tied to short-term agreements, whereas the changes required may last decades. Some estates have developed tourism, nature courses and high-quality meat from free-ranging animals to replace lost revenue, but these markets remain small. Without sustained support, many landowners will understandably continue to prioritise food production, and rewilding will remain confined to a few wealthier properties.
Cultural objections are equally strong. In regions where agriculture has shaped identity for centuries, the sight of scrub and thorn bushes spreading across fields can look like neglect rather than recovery. Farmers may see rewilding as a criticism of their work and fear that released animals will damage fences or spread disease. Conservationists, for their part, sometimes underestimate the value of broad open landscapes that are themselves home to skylarks and rare arable plants. These tensions cannot be resolved by scientific arguments alone; they require conversation about what a living countryside should look like.
The best-known European example is the Knepp Estate in West Sussex, England. In the early 2000s its owners stopped intensive dairy and arable farming and introduced free-roaming cattle, horses and pigs across much of the land. Within two decades the estate became a refuge for species that had declined elsewhere, including the turtle dove, the nightingale and the purple emperor butterfly. The site now attracts researchers and thousands of visitors, and its model has influenced land managers in several countries. It is not a blueprint that can be copied everywhere, but it demonstrates that dramatic ecological change is possible on lowland farmland.
Policy will determine how widely such experiments spread. Current agricultural subsidies in many countries still reward production or keep land in a fixed condition, and only a small share directly encourages natural processes. Governments are experimenting with schemes that pay for outcomes, such as cleaner water, more wildlife or reduced flood risk. If those schemes become stable and well funded, rewilding could become one legitimate land use among many, rather than a threat to farming. The challenge is to design support that is flexible enough for local conditions and clear enough for farmers to trust.
You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 27–40, which are based on Reading Passage 3 below.
Measuring Charity Impact
Every year, donors give hundreds of billions of dollars to charitable causes, from poverty relief and medical research to education and the arts. Behind this generosity lies an increasingly insistent question: what difference does the money actually make? The demand for evidence grew partly out of scandal, as well-publicised cases of wasted donations undermined public confidence. It also grew out of a genuine belief among donors that they should use their resources as effectively as possible. I agree that measuring impact is essential, but I believe that the current enthusiasm for metrics has begun to create problems of its own.
This movement is most visible among proponents of effective altruism, who argue that donors should base decisions on rigorous evidence of what works. They point to development interventions for which randomised trials have shown substantial benefits, such as distributing insecticide-treated nets to prevent malaria. The appeal of such examples is undeniable: comparing the cost of a net with the number of malaria cases prevented seems to turn charitable giving into a branch of engineering. Yet social programmes rarely have the controlled conditions of a mechanical problem, and applying the same logic to every cause can ignore important values that cannot easily be counted.
Charities themselves now face pressure to collect data constantly. Funders ask for logical frameworks, baseline surveys, mid-term reviews and final evaluations, sometimes consuming a large share of a small organisation's budget. A charity that cannot demonstrate measurable results may be denied funds even when its staff are doing excellent long-term work with people who trust them. The familiar claim that low administrative costs equal efficiency is particularly damaging, because it punishes investment in skilled staff and robust information systems. Good measurement requires resources, and refusing to fund those resources does not make a programme more effective.
Part of the difficulty is that what is easy to count is not always what matters. An organisation that gives away spectacles in poor countries can report how many pairs were distributed, but that figure says little about whether sight improved, whether children stayed in school or whether local markets were harmed. The difference between outputs, such as goods delivered, and outcomes, such as lives actually changed, is a central principle of evaluation. Many donors now understand this distinction and insist on outcome data, yet outcomes can take years to appear and are often influenced by factors that no single charity controls.
The strongest form of evidence, the randomised controlled trial, has well-documented limitations. Trials can show that an intervention worked in one place under particular conditions, but the result may not transfer to another country, culture or decade. They are also expensive and slow, and for many kinds of work, from legal advocacy to arts education, random assignment is simply not possible or ethically appropriate. I would not reject statistical evaluation; I would treat it as one source of understanding among several, rather than as a gold standard before which all other information must bow.
A more serious danger is that targets tend to change behaviour in unintended ways. If a charity's funding depends on placing a certain number of unemployed people into jobs, its staff will focus on those clients who are easiest to place, while the most disadvantaged are quietly avoided. If schools are judged by test scores, teachers may narrow what they teach. If hospitals are rewarded for short waiting times, doctors may rush consultations. These distortions are not evidence of dishonest staff; they are a predictable response to the pressure to hit a number. Overmeasurement can therefore make organisations less responsive, less experimental and less willing to admit failure.
What is needed, in my view, is a broader account of impact. Quantitative indicators should be accompanied by careful listening to the people whom programmes are intended to serve. Their definitions of success may differ from those of a foundation in a distant capital. Solid judgement, based on experience and honest reflection, should also play a role. A small project that helps a few families to remain in their homes may be dismissed by a spreadsheet, but it may still be the most valuable thing a community receives. The goal should be to learn and improve, not merely to justify past spending.
Ultimately, the question 'does it work?' should not be silenced, but neither should it be allowed to flatten the diversity of human needs. Donors should fund the costs of thoughtful evaluation, and charities should report failures as well as successes. The most effective organisations are usually those that see measurement as a tool for improving their work, not as a condition to be satisfied. If we are serious about impact, we must also be serious about the humility, time and judgement that genuine understanding requires.
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